Football is insane. I know I write that here every week, but it’s because it’s true. In week 10, the Vikings beat the Bills in the game of the year, the Packers beat the Cowboys, and the Colts changed course at the last minute and started Matt Ryan at quarterback, and he led them to a win over the Raiders. I went a disappointing 6-8 on my predictions. I think it’s time to start picking more upsets and taking more chances. My early season success has completely worn off and it’s time to change that. Here are my week 11 power rankings and predictions.

Each team’s record and rank from last week is listed in parentheses.

Tanking for Bryce Young: This is the worst team in the league now, but they are set for a bright future.

#32. Houston Texans (1-7-1, 32)

The pit of sadness: These teams are stuck with journeymen veterans on bad contracts, have limited draft capital, and have no way out of purgatory.

#31. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 25)

#30. New Orleans Saints (3-7, 24)

#29. Los Angeles Rams (3-6, 23)

The scrappy underdogs:

#28. Carolina Panthers (3-7, 30)

#27. Atlanta Falcons (4-6, 20): Clearly I bumped these guys up too far last week. It’s time to get Marcus out of the starting lineup and see what rookie Desmond Ridder can do at quarterback.

#26. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6, 29): T.J. Watt’s return is a big boost to this defense.

#25. Chicago Bears (3-7, 26): Justin Fields is blossoming right in front of (your) eyes. Notice what I did there?

#24. Detroit Lions (3-6, 27): A quarterback and a defense away from contending.

#23. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7, 21)

#22. Denver Broncos (3-6, 19)

Longshot playoff teams:

#21. Cleveland Browns (3-6, 17): They’re only in this tier because DeShaun Watson will be back in three weeks, and that could help them turn their season around.

#20. Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1, 31): So much for the tank. They’re actually decent with Matt Ryan playing quarterback. What a strange franchise.

#19. Arizona Cardinals (4-6, 18)

#18. Washington Commanders (5-5, 22): They’ve won five of their last six games, and that one loss was only by three points against the streaking Vikings. This team is playing well and has a great mojo going right now, plus pass rusher Chase Young is returning from injury soon. These guys could play spoiler to anyone at any time.

#17. Green Bay Packers (4-6, 28): What a win over Dallas. We’ll see if they can gain some momentum and resurrect their season.

Definite playoff contenders:

#16. New York Jets (6-3, 16)

#15. New England Patriots (5-4, 15)

#14. New York Giants (7-2, 14)

#13. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4, 13)

#12. Seattle Seahawks (6-4, 10)

#11. Tennessee Titans (6-3, 11)

Potential Super Bowl contenders:

#10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5, 12): They’re slowly improving. They still have a lot to figure out, but this team could be dangerous if they reach their potential.

#9. Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 8)

#8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4, 7)

#7. Dallas Cowboys (6-3, 5)

#6. San Francisco 49ers (5-4, 4)

Serious Super Bowl contenders:

#5. Philadelphia Eagles (9-0, 1): That was a tough loss against Washington. They’ll have to be better if they want to make it deep into the postseason.

#4. Miami Dolphins (7-3, 6)

#3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2, 3)

#2. Buffalo Bills (6-3, 2): Josh Allen’s random mental mistakes could prove costly come playoff time. This team probably still has the highest upside of anyone in the league, but they are to inconsistent to put at the top at this point.

#1. Minnesota Vikings (8-1, 9): What a win, what a team. It just might be Minnesota’s year.

Week 11 predictions:

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers:

The Titans rode their defense to a 17-10 win over the Broncos last week. However, Derrick Henry had his second worst game of the season, as he was limited to just 53 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Tennessee’s defense is great, but their middling offense limits their upside. The Packers are coming off a great 31-28 overtime win over the Cowboys. Rookie Christian Watson broke out for three touchdown receptions, and Aaron Jones piled up 156 total yards and a score in Green Bay’s most impressive offensive showing of the year. If Watson’s breakout wasn’t a fluke, there might be some hope in Green Bay after all. I said I was going to start picking more upsets, and here’s one right off the bat. I’m taking the Packers to continue their momentum and beat the Titans at home. If Aaron Rodgers plays well, Green Bay has the better offense, plus the Packers have historically defended Henry well. If he is held in check, Tennessee doesn’t have much of a chance unless their defense dominates.

Prediction: Packers 24, Titans 21

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons:

Justin Fields and the Bears offense yet again scored 30 points last week, but the Lions stopped them on their final drive, handing them a 31-30 loss. The Falcons shockingly dropped a huge stinker last Thursday night, losing to the Panthers 25-15. Marcus Mariota had a truly awful performance. As I noted in the power rankings, it’s time to see what Desmond Ritter, a 2022 third round pick out of Cincinnati, can do. Atlanta needs to know whether Ritter can be their starter next year or whether they need to draft another quarterback. For now, the Bears offense is probably too good for Atlanta to handle. The Falcons probably won’t play as badly as they did against Carolina, but I think the Bears are the better team even when Atlanta is at their best.

Prediction: Bears 35, Falcons 28

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills:

What a heartbreaking loss it was for the Bills last week. They led 27-10 late in the third quarter, but the Vikings came storming back and had a chance to take the lead with a touchdown with under a minute to go. However, Kirk Cousins failed to convert a quarterback sneak from the half-yard line on fourth and goal, and the game was seemingly over. However, Josh Allen fumbled the ensuing snap, and the Vikings recovered it in the end zone for a touchdown. The Bills would drive down the field and tie the game with a field goal to send the game to overtime, but the Vikings kicked a field goal to start the extra period, and Allen threw a horrible interception right to Vikings cornerback Patrick Peterson to end the game. The Browns didn’t put up a fight in a 39-17 loss to the Dolphins last week. The Bills are heartbroken, and I think they will play angry this week. I expect Buffalo to bounce back.

Prediction: Bills 35, Browns 20

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts:

Well, the Jeff Saturday experiment is off to a great start. In a surprising move, the Colts started Matt Ryan over Sam Ehlinger against the Raiders last week, and he led them to a 25-20 win. I have no idea what’s going on in Indi right now. I thought they were tanking, but re-inserting Ryan into the starting lineup is a clear indication that they want to win some games. I’m not saying it’s the right decision, but they are definitely better with Ryan than Ehlinger. The Eagles, on the other hand, suffered their first loss on Monday night against the Commanders. Washington dominated the time of possession as Philly’s defense couldn’t get off the field on third down. Jalen Hurts also had his worst game, and star receiver A.J. Brown had just one catch for seven yards. They are better than how they played in that game, but they certainly have some things to improve on. This has the potential to be an upset if the Colts continue to play hard, but I don’t see Philly losing two in a row.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Colts 20

New York Jets @ New England Patriots:

These teams were both on bye last week. Three weeks ago, Bill Belichick beat the Jets for the 11th straight time. The Pats won again in week nine as they made quick work of the Colts. Zach Wilson threw three interceptions in the first meeting with New England, but he rebounded to lead his team to an upset of the Bills the following week. Both of these teams are defensively minded, but the Patriots have the more trustworthy offense and are playing at home. Anyways, the Jets haven’t beaten the Pats since 2016. Why would I predict the curse to end now?

Prediction: Patriots 19, Jets 16

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints:

What an ugly game this is going to be. An already putrid Rams offense lost Cooper Kupp, their only good player on offense, for at least a month with a high ankle sprain in a loss to the Cardinals last week. Given that he has caught six of L.A.’s nine touchdown passes this season, the expectations for this offense are basically nothing without him. With a terrible offensive line and a quarterback in Matthew Stafford who lacks mobility, plus a bad receiving core, there is nothing at all to work with right now for the defending Super Bowl champs. Things might be worse in New Orleans, however. Andy Dalton threw for less than 200 yards and tossed two interceptions as the Saints fell to 3-7 on the season with a 27-17 loss to the Steelers last week. The Saints technically have more playmakers than the Rams, but their offensive line and quarterback situations are similar. The Rams have the better defense, so I’ll give them a slight edge.

Prediction: Rams 17, Saints 13

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants:

The Lions have won two in a row, although they struggle with major inconsistency. In week nine, their defense led them to a 15-9 win over the Packers. In week 10, it was the offense that led them to a 31-30 win over the Bears as the defense struggled. On the other hand, the Giants are the definition of consistency. They returned from their bye week and took care of business against the Texans, winning 24-16. With that being said, I’m going to take the Lions to win. The Giants lack talent and win because of their coaching. Despite their inconsistency, the Lions have more talent and are also well coached. Detroit has more playmakers on offense, and I think their defense can hold up against an average Giants offense.

Prediction: Lions 23, Giants 21

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens:

The Panthers seemed to be done after their brutal week nine loss to the Bengals, but they rebounded and outplayed the Falcons all game in a 25-15 win. P.J. Walker sprained his ankle against Atlanta so Baker Mayfield will start at quarterback this week, but I don’t think that really changes the outlook for this offense. The Ravens are well rested after their bye week and are more talented by a lot. I don’t see a world in which Carolina wins this one.

Prediction: Ravens 30, Panthers 20

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans:

The Commanders pulled off a stunner last week, handing the Eagles their first loss 26-21. Washington’s defense forced four turnovers and they ate up the clock by running the ball a whopping 47 times. It was Washington’s fourth win in their last five games. Another win is on the horizon this week, as the Texans are unarguably the NFL’s worst team this year.

Prediction: Commanders 26, Texans 17

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos:

Both of these teams have vastly underwhelmed this year. Russell Wilson and the Broncos returned from their bye only to lose 17-10 to the Titans last week. This Broncos team is a novelty. They have scored the fewest points of any team, but they have also given up the least. The fact that they have a 3-8 record goes to show just how bad this offense has been. The Raiders, however, are in an even worse place. After the Colts suddenly changed course at quarterback and started Matt Ryan, the Raiders lost 25-20 to Jeff Saturday, the Colts interim head coach, in his first ever game coaching above the high school level. The Raiders won the first matchup with Denver 32-23 earlier this year, but Wilson played his best game of the season in that one. If Russ can play even a relatively clean game and Denver’s defense plays better than they did in the first meeting with Vegas, the Broncos should be able to win.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Raiders 20

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings:

The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing 31-28 loss to the Packers. The offense played well besides for two Dak Prescott interceptions, but the defense had their worst showing of the season against an offense that had struggled prior to facing Dallas. Minnesota is coming off a wild overtime win over the Bills. Although they aren’t necessarily the most talented team in the league, they have a special feel about them. They never give up and you can never count them out. Luck seems to be on their side for once. This should be a great game, but the Vikings are at home and have more momentum. I’ll take them to win a shootout.

Prediction: Vikings 31, Cowboys 30

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers:

Things are looking up a little bit for the Steelers. Their offense is still mediocre, but the return of pass rusher T.J. Watt is huge for their defense. With that being said, the Bengals are well rested and will be looking to avenge a loss to Pittsburgh from back in week one.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Steelers 19

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers:

The Chargers lost 22-16 to the 49ers last week, while the Chiefs took care of business against the Jaguars in a 27-17 win. The Chiefs offense is rolling right now, and the Chargers receiving core is too banged up for them to keep up.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Chargers 24

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals:

The Cardinals won a slop fest over the Rams last week. Kyler Murray missed that game with a hamstring injury, but fortunately, Matthew Stafford missed that game with a concussion for the Rams. The Niners beat the Chargers last week in a defensive battle. Running back Eli Mitchell returned from an injury that sidelined him for over two months and surprisingly out-carried and out-produced Christian McCaffrey. The Niners have so many weapons on offense and their defense is elite. They should win no matter who starts at quarterback for the Cards.

Prediction: 49ers 26, Cardinals 20